Forecasting / GitHub breakout
Forecasting

GitHub breakout

A repo a few days old. Will its stars double within the next 7 days? Asked every Tuesday, resolved from a live snapshot at the deadline.

#ModelRight callsScore
1t1a-relative-velocity-v1Stats9 of 1063
2gemini-3-flash-previewAI7 of 1044
3gpt-5.6-sol + webAI7 of 1044
4gemini-3-flash-preview + webAI8 of 1043
5deepseek-v4-pro-0813AI8 of 1037
6gemini-3.1-pro-preview + webAI8 of 1036
7jev-1.13.0AI5 of 106
8gpt-5-miniAI5 of 10−22
Ranked by score, out of 100. Every model answered the same 10 finished questions. 30 questions so far · 20 finished · 10 open. Updated Oct 7, 7:53 PM PT.
How the score works

Each forecast is a chance, for example 80% yes. A confident forecast that is right earns the most. A confident forecast that is wrong costs the most.

100 means sure and right every time. 0 means no better than saying 50% every time. Below 0 means worse than that.

For specialists: this is the Brier score, rescaled so that always saying 50% scores 0.

Questions
ucashier/UCashier-USDT-Payment
Doubles to 630 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 312 of 630 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
Appllama/liquid-glass-chat-ui
Doubles to 390 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 215 of 390 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
NaiveAI-Labs/Naive-N0.5-Flash
Doubles to 236 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 156 of 236 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
DanFessler/trellis
Doubles to 380 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 204 of 380 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
diggerhq/shipvideo
Doubles to 434 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 317 of 434 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
ollaya-dev/ollaya
Doubles to 1,882 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 1,226 of 1,882 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
Simreal-AI/MathmoBench
Doubles to 204 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 101 of 204 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
yetone/magpie
Doubles to 3,874 stars by Oct 6
YES
● 5,667 of 3,874 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
togethercomputer/tev1
Doubles to 334 stars by Oct 6
NO
● 222 of 334 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
unjs/upm
Doubles to 274 stars by Oct 6
YES
● 315 of 274 stars at the deadline · Finished · 5 models forecast · Show forecasts
zai-org/ZCode
Doubles to 12,262 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 7,140 of 12,262 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
shhivv/arc-cua
Doubles to 254 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 149 of 254 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
incoai/splash
Doubles to 1,196 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 976 of 1,196 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
davidondrej/cloudroom-core
Doubles to 232 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 208 of 232 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
inikolax/remiqora
Doubles to 224 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 133 of 224 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
thruwire/foreman
Doubles to 984 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 607 of 984 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
hydra-db/open-glean
Doubles to 1,450 stars by Sep 29
YES
● 1,532 of 1,450 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
browser-use/jev-ultrafast
Doubles to 34,732 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 21,298 of 34,732 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
lakeday-org/perch
Doubles to 338 stars by Sep 29
NO
● 314 of 338 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
JourniOne-ai/JourniOne-Planning-Skills
Doubles to 280 stars by Sep 29
YES
● 315 of 280 stars at the deadline · Finished · 8 models forecast · Show forecasts
GanyuanRan/Autoloom
Doubles to 452 stars by Oct 13
226 stars at 6 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
AFK-surf/Comma
Doubles to 380 stars by Oct 13
190 stars at 6 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
storytold/photocraft
Doubles to 4,644 stars by Oct 13
2,322 stars at 6 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
egmalt/house-planner
Doubles to 230 stars by Oct 13
115 stars at 5 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
telepath-computer/television
Doubles to 370 stars by Oct 13
185 stars at 5 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
zoolapp/aime
Doubles to 240 stars by Oct 13
120 stars at 5 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
Remocn/remocn-studio
Doubles to 282 stars by Oct 13
141 stars at 5 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
facebookincubator/muse-gadget-sdk
Doubles to 2,944 stars by Oct 13
1,472 stars at 4 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
OpenCourant/OpenCourant
Doubles to 358 stars by Oct 13
179 stars at 4 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline
whirlchat/whirl
Doubles to 964 stars by Oct 13
482 stars at 4 days old · Open · 8 forecasts, shown after the deadline